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CFB: ESPN/ABC ’09 College Football Lineup Loaded
2009-05-29

ABC, along with the Worldwide Leader in Sports, ESPN, recently announced its college football national TV slate for the season and it’s loaded with plenty of big games from what promises to be another thrilling season. Most of the nation’s top teams will be on the networks at one time or another, and if not, you will surely find them on CBS, FOX, or even Versus. Here’s a look at the ABC/ESPN schedule along with a few comments of some of the games. In the meantime, if you’re suffering from football betting withdrawal, be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS page for some exciting prop options available for the 2009 season.

Date: Game (Time, Network)
Thu., Sept. 3: South Carolina at NC State (7 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Thu., Sept. 3: Oregon at Boise State (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
* Everyone’s favorite BCS-party crasher, Boise State, could see its hopes end early this season, as the high-powered Ducks visit the Smurf Turf.
Fri., Sept. 4: Tulsa at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN)
Sat., Sept. 5: Missouri vs. Illinois (3:40 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2)
Sat., Sept. 5: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (8 p.m., ABC)
* Nick Saban’s Alabama team laid down in each of its last two games after an unbeaten regular season. Expectations are again high, but this trip to Blacksburg is a difficult season opener.
Sat., Sept. 5: Maryland at California (10 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Sept. 5: LSU at Washington (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
* Washington may have been the country’s worst BCS-league football school in 2008. This season doesn’t figure to start well vs. the powerful LSU Tigers.
Sun., Sept. 6: Grambling St. vs. South Carolina St. (2 p.m., ESPN2)
Sun., Sept. 6: Ole Miss at Memphis (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Mon., Sept. 7: Cincinnati at Rutgers (4 p.m., ESPN)
* Big East play is in full swing already on Labor Day, with defending league champ Cincinnati opening its season on the road at Rutgers.
Mon., Sept. 7: Miami at Florida State (8 p.m., ESPN)
* This rivalry used to come with much bigger implications, still the teams don’t like each other and it makes for an exciting holiday showdown.
Thu., Sept. 10: Clemson at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Sept. 11: Colorado at Toledo (9 p.m., ESPN)
Sat., Sept. 12: BYU at Tulane (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Sept. 12: USC at Ohio State (8 p.m., ESPN)
* The biggest early season game on the slate, Ohio State looks to avenge last season’s rout in Los Angeles when it welcomes the highly touted USC Trojans to Columbus.
Thu., Sept. 17: Georgia Tech at Miami (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Sept. 18: Boise State at Fresno State (9 p.m., ESPN)
Sat., Sept. 19: USC at Washington (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Sat., Sept. 19: Utah at Oregon (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
* Utah, the defending Mountain West & Sugar Bowl champs, face a tough early season test in one of college football’s toughest environments.
Sat., Sept. 19: Texas Tech at Texas (8 p.m., ABC)
* Texas Tech & Texas played one of the most exciting games of the ’08 season, with the Red Raiders winning on Michael Crabtree’s last second TD catch. The rematch is September 19th in Austin.
Thu., Sept. 24: Ole Miss at South Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Sept. 25: Missouri at Nevada (9 p.m., ESPN)
Sat., Sept. 26: California at Oregon (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Sat., Sept. 26: Notre Dame at Purdue (8 p.m., ABC or ESPN)
* Expectations are high in South Bend after last year’s Hawaii Bowl winning season. This trip to Purdue might be the toughest early test for the Irish.
Sat., Sept. 26: Iowa at Penn State (8 p.m., ABC or ESPN)
Sat., Sept. 26: Texas Tech at Houston (9:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Wed., Sept. 30: Hawaii at Louisiana Tech (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Oct. 1: Colorado at West Virginia (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Oct. 2: Pittsburgh at Louisville (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Oct. 3: USC at California (8 p.m., ABC)
* California figures to be one of the few Pac 10 clubs capable of giving USC a run in ’09, especially with RB Jahvid Best putting his speed up against the Trojans defense.
Tue., Oct. 6: Middle Tennessee at Troy (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Oct. 8: Nebraska at Missouri (9 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Oct. 9: Louisiana Tech at Nevada (9 p.m., ESPN)
Sat., Oct. 10: Michigan at Iowa (8 p.m., ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Tue., Oct. 13: Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Wed., Oct. 14: Boise State at Tulsa (8 p.m., ESPN)
* This mid-week non-conference clash figures to be an entertaining one, as both Boise State and Tulsa are capable of putting up big points.
Thu., Oct. 15: Cincinnati at South Florida (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Oct. 16: Pittsburgh at Rutgers (8 p.m., ESPN)
Wed., Oct. 21: Tulsa at UTEP (8 p.m., ESPN)
Thu., Oct. 22: Florida State at North Carolina (8 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Oct. 23: Rutgers at Army (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Oct. 24: Oregon State at USC (8 p.m., ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Tue., Oct. 27: East Carolina at Memphis (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Oct. 29: North Carolina at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Oct. 30: West Virginia at South Florida (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Oct. 31: Penn State at Northwestern (4:30 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2)
Sat., Oct. 31: USC at Oregon (8 p.m., ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
* Perhaps the Game of the Year in the Pac 10 Conference. USC is ranked #4 in the StatFox Preseason Top 25, Oregon is #8. The Ducks hope to take full advantage of the home field.
Sun., Nov. 1: Marshall at UCF (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
Tue., Nov. 3: Bowling Green at Buffalo (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Nov. 5: Virginia Tech at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
* This non-conference tilt doesn’t figure to excite the average Joe, but college football enthusiasts will recognize the magnitude of the contest. Not only do both teams being the year in the StatFox Top 15, but the rivalry is growing year by year.
Fri., Nov. 6: Boise State at Louisiana Tech (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Nov. 7: USC at Arizona State (8 p.m., ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Sun., Nov. 8: Nevada at San Jose State (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
Tue., Nov. 10: Ohio at Buffalo (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Wed., Nov. 11: Toledo at Central Michigan (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Nov. 12: South Florida at Rutgers (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Nov. 13: West Virginia at Cincinnati (8 p.m., ESPN2)
* Cincinnati is the defending Big East champ and the highest ranked team from that league in the StatFox Preseason Top 25. West Virginia is usually that team. Enough said.
Sat., Nov. 14: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Sun., Nov. 15: East Carolina at Tulsa (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
* A rematch of the 2008 Conference USA title game won 27-24 by heavy underdog East Carolina on the road. Tulsa gets another shot at the Pirates, again at home.
Wed., Nov. 18: Central Michigan at Ball State (6 or 8 p.m., ESPNU or ESPN2)
Wed., Nov. 18: Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) (6 or 8 p.m., ESPNU or ESPN2)
Thu., Nov. 19: Colorado at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Nov. 20: Boise State at Utah State (9:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Tue., Nov. 24: Ball State at Western Michigan (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Thu., Nov. 26: Texas at Texas A&M (8 p.m., ESPN)
* The Thanksgiving Night continuation of one of college football’s biggest rivalries, Texas travels to College Station to take on the Aggies and the “12th Man”.
Fri., Nov. 27: Nebraska at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Fri., Nov. 27: Rutgers at Louisville (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Fri., Nov. 27: Illinois at Cincinnati (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Fri., Nov. 27: Nevada at Boise State (TBD, ESPN2)
* Most experts agree that Nevada is the one team in the WAC capable of giving Boise State a run for the league crown. The last time these teams met in Boise, the Broncos won 69-67.
Fri., Nov. 27: Pittsburgh at West Virginia (TBD, ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2)
* The Backyard Brawl. That’s all you need to know.
Sat., Nov. 28: Notre Dame at Stanford (8 p.m., ABC)
Thu., Dec. 3: Oregon State at Oregon (9 p.m., ESPN)
Fri., Dec. 4: Marathon MAC Championship Game (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Sat., Dec. 5: Arizona at USC (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Sat., Dec. 5: Wisconsin at Hawaii (TBD, ESPN or ESPN2)
Sat., Dec. 5: South Florida at Connecticut (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Sat., Dec. 5: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
* The Big East tries to steal the thunder from the leagues that host championship games on December 5th with its own full slate of games. Cincy visiting Pitt figures to be the biggest of those season ending contests.
Sat., Dec. 5: West Virginia at Rutgers (TBD, ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
Sat., Dec. 5: C-USA Championship Game (TBD, ESPN or ESPN2)

CFB: BCS Championship Betting Preview (8:15 PM ET, FOX)
2009-01-08

Finally! College football fans and football bettors have had to wait over a month for this day to arrive, the playing of the BCS national championship game. Along the way, we watched the Pac-10 surprise us, the Big Ten disappoint (again) and the elite of the Big 12 under whelm. We’ve listened to ESPN analysts give us mounds of information and been forced to stomach Dr. Lou and have been amazed at how little the Fox crew knows about college football. But none of that matters now, because Florida and Oklahoma are about to settle everything (we hope) on the field of play.

While the merits of one team having a shot for BCS title can be discussed vehemently, nobody can realistically argue these are not the two hottest teams to end the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow promised all of us after losing at home to Mississippi 31-30, nobody would play harder (You didn’t need YouTube to view this a thousand times) and he and his teammates made good on that promise as the Gators won last nine games by 36.4 points per game.

Oklahoma also had to show resolve and even when they did, it almost wasn’t enough. The Sooners lost to Texas (as everyone dressed in burnt orange is quick to remind the world) and had to do something the rest of the season that would make stand out, while keep on winning. All they did was average a sick 59.8 points per game the rest of the season, including passing the Big 6 0 in last five games. If you really think about, if Oklahoma had won the rest of their games, but averaged say 45 points a game, they probably would have never passed Texas.

We all know defense wins championships, but the best guess here is both coaches are setting up speed bumps or road blocks, knowing full well their is little either can do other than to cause confusion to slow down the other’s offense. Florida is stellar 10-2 ATS and 7-0 ATS against teams scoring 34 or more points and Oklahoma is 8-0 ATS after scoring 50 or more points.

On the year, Florida technically had a tougher schedule, meeting 10 bowl teams, compared to eight for Oklahoma. The Gators were 9-1 and 8-2 ATS, winning by 31.4 points per games. The Sooners were 7-1 and 6-2 ATS, winning by 29 PPG.

One absolutely delicious aspect of this matchup is the differences in the conferences during the regular season. In looking strictly at play within the conferences (excluding league championship games) the contrast couldn’t be any more stark. The SEC had two teams that scored 275 or more points in conference action (Florida and Alabama), compared to the Big 12, which saw seven schools pass the same point total. The average total score of a Southeast Conference contest was just over 46 points, while the Big 12 was 68 total points on the nose.

Sportsbook.com opened this title game at Florida at -3 and 72. After the wagering public got a look at how the each conference did in the bowls, they have moved the Gators up to 4.5 (5 at other locales), with the total dwindling to 69.5.

At this point, it becomes a matter of “what if”. This year’s Heisman winner Sam Bradford has been stupid good since losing to Texas, with 25 touchdowns and ONE interception. Only Texas and TCU “held” Oklahoma to 35 points and each was known for being able to pressure the quarterback. If Florida creates pressure up front with a few sacks and general steady pressure, Bradford might not be as confident in the pocket. Otherwise, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Florida is in a similar, yet different battle to win this encounter. The Gators three lowest rushing total games came against Miami-Fl., Ole Miss and Alabama, all games Florida had difficulties getting the offense going. As great as it is to see Tebow scurrying around and trying to bulldoze people over, all it really means is the running game is not working and his receivers are covered. Chances are Bob Stoops would love to see Tebow as Florida’s leading rusher in this game. The Gators need to run the ball first and are 6-0 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt and 8-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Oklahoma’s coach Stoops used to be known as “Big Game Bob”, however four BCS losses later, his reputation has been run aground and is 4-5 bowling, with only three covers. His counterpart Urban Meyer is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls.

If we have learned anything from the BCS bowl games, it’s about starting after a long layoff. Texas, Penn State and Alabama were all late to the party, with the latter two never recovering and the Longhorns taking to the final seconds to secure victory. Conversely, a hot start propelled USC and Utah to relatively easy wins.

Since they started using bowl games to determine the national champions, only once has one conference won three in a row, which was the SEC in 1978-80, can Oklahoma prevent history from repeating?

CFB: INTERNATIONAL BOWL - BUFFALO vs. CONNECTICUT (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2008-12-31

The third installment of the International Bowl from Toronto, Canada kicks off on Saturday at noon eastern, as everyone gets ready for another big day of football. The NFL wildcard playoffs can wait though, as UConn takes on Buffalo as a 4-1/2 point favorite. The Huskies are the betting choice of 84% of early players at last check.

What a year for Buffalo U., they win the MAC East, upset undefeated Ball State in the conference championship and play in first ever bowl game in nearby Toronto. From a confidence standpoint, QB Drew Willy and teammates have to love the role of underdog, being 7-0 ATS this year with four outright upsets. Though the season ended with two losses, Connecticut goes bowling for the second year in a row. If desired, the Huskies can dog Buffalo, being superior on the defensive side of the ball. If UConn cranks up running game, they’ll move to 26-11 ATS after a non-cover. Buffalo will be pumped to be in the contest and if they can stay within reach, the momentum could take them to 10-2 ATS off win.

International Bowl Series Trend: There have been two previous International Bowl games in Toronto, matching the Big East and MAC conferences. The BCS conference has won both games outright but the ATS ledger is split 1/1 The OVER is also 2-0. At -4.5, UConn will be the lowest line favorite from the Big East yet.

Top ATS Trend
• BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog this season. The average score was BUFFALO 31.3, OPPONENT 30.4 - (Rating = 3*)

Top Totals Trend
• BUFFALO is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1999. The average score was BUFFALO 15.1, OPPONENT 36.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Recent BUFFALO Bowl Game Trends
* This is Buffalo's first bowl game appearance ever.

Recent CONNECTICUT Bowl Game Trends
* CONNECTICUT won its only prior bowl game vs. the MAC, 39-10 in '04.
* CONNECTICUT has never been a bowl game favorite.
* UNDER the total is 2-0 in prior two CONNECTICUT bowl games.

StatFox Power Ratings say: CONNECTICUT by 4

CFB: LIBERTY BOWL - EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-12-31

It seems as though bettors haven’t caught win yet of the amazing Liberty Bowl trend that finds the UNDER the total having won in 13 of the last 16 contests. Either that, or 75% of them are simply convinced that East Carolina and Kentucky will exceed this year’s posted number of 41. The Pirates, out of Conference USA, are also a 3-point favorite over the SEC’s Kentucky.

Other than Florida and Alabama, not a banner year for the SEC and the last thing they would want is to take a hit to reputation losing to C-USA team, even if they are the conference champs. Kentucky is on a 3-game losing streak, finishing 2-6 SU and ATS in the SEC. The Wildcats defense wilted down the stretch and they are 8-19 ATS in road games after not covering the spread in 2 out of last 3. East Carolina had three seasons, the first and last parts were outstanding with not much in the middle. When called upon, the Pirates were up ready and upset Tulsa 27-24 and are 9-0 ATS as visitors after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Kentucky is an underdog and is 4-1 ATS in this spot.

Liberty Bowl Series Trend: Typically renowned for matching high scoring teams from Conference USA against the SEC, Mountain West, or WAC conferences, this bowl game series has gone UNDER the total in 13 of the last 16 games. The SEC is a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in its last three chances.

Top ATS Trend
• E CAROLINA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. The average score was E CAROLINA 33.0, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Top Totals Trend
• KENTUCKY is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The average score was KENTUCKY 21.0, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 1*)

Recent EAST CAROLINA Bowl Game Trends
* E CAROLINA is 0-2 SU & ATS in L2 bowl games as a favorite.
* The underdog has dominated E CAROLINA bowl games, 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.
* In E CAROLINA bowl games with totals less than 50, UNDER is 3-0.

Recent KENTUCKY Bowl Game Trends
* KENTUCKY has gone UNDER the total in four of its L5 bowl games.
* The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the L7 KENTUCKY bowl games.
* KENTUCKY is 4-1 ATS in its L5 as a bowl game underdog.

StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings say: EAST CAROLINA by 3

CFB: COTTON BOWL - OLE MISS vs. TEXAS TECH (2:00 PM ET, FOX)
2008-12-31

Texas Tech flirted with the #1 national ranking this season and its only blemish came at Oklahoma. Still, the Red Raiders are the annual team left outside of the BCS looking in, thanks to a crowded Big 12 South Division field. On Friday, HC Mike Leach’s team will try to finish off its special season with a resounding win over Ole Miss. Tech is a 4-point favorite and backed by nearly 80% of bettors.

It was a sensational season for Texas Tech with just one loss to Oklahoma, who ended up in the BCS title tilt. With QB Graham Harrell at the controls, Texas Tech was #1 in passing offense, with 5-4-1 ATS record. Texas Tech is 10-20-1 in bowl games, with 5-11-1 ATS record. They have not covered the last three bowl games and are 2-8 ATS when favored. Ole Miss lost four games, but none by more than a touchdown and could have been 10-2 easily. For the season, the Rebels finished 8-3 ATS and are 11-1 against the spread in road games vs. passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Mississippi is 19-12 and 7-3-1 ATS in bowl games, including 4-2 ATS as underdogs.

Cotton Bowl Series Trend: Normally played as the early kickoff on New Year’s Day, this year’s Cotton Bowl is moved back one day. It’s probably best too, as teams have played as if they’ve been hungover, going UNDER the total in 11 of the last 13 series games. On posted totals averaging 51.7, the clubs have combined for just 41.5. The SEC is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five Cotton Bowl games.

Top ATS Trend
• OLE MISS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992. The average score was OLE MISS 21.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Top Totals Trend
• TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. this season. The average score was TEXAS TECH 45.7, OPPONENT 33.0 - (Rating = 2*)

Recent OLE MISS Bowl Game Trends
* OLE MISS is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its L7 bowl games.
* OLE MISS is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in its L4 bowl games vs. Big 12 teams.
* The underdog is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in OLE MISS's L5 bowl games.

Recent TEXAS TECH Bowl Game Trends
* TEXAS TECH is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in its L3 bowl games, all as favorites.
* Underdogs boast a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS record in L10 TEXAS TECH bowl games.
* TEXAS TECH is 0-3 ATS in its L3 January bowl games.

StatFox Power Ratings say: TEXAS TECH by 4