CFB: Gator Bowl - FLORIDA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (1:00 PM ET, CBS)

Expect plenty of hype surrounding Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. The Mountaineers ar

2010-01-04

Expect plenty of hype surrounding Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. The Mountaineers are 3-point favorites with a total of 60 at Sportsbook.com, and in typical fashion, bettors are siding with the favorites and the OVER.

Whether or not FSU is deserving of playing on New Year’s Day, with their 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, is certainly debatable. In unfamiliar fashion, Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. It has been a sound bowl team, however, going 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its L5, having gone OVER the total each time. West Virginia is 9-3, yet plays as just a field-goal favorite. The Mountaineers have won four straight bowl games.

I’ve already heard it 100 times since Bowden decided to retire…Florida State would love to send him out on a winning note. Blah, blah, blah. Wanting and being able to are two entirely different things and when you simply look at this game from a strength perspective, West Virginia is 9-3 with a StatFox Outplay Factor Rating of +7.9, while Florida State is 6-6 with an Outplay Factor +4.1. The Seminoles are even down their starting quarterback from the season. In truth, this is a .500 Florida State team that has perhaps the worst defensive unit of ANY of the 68 bowl teams. It is only playing on New Year’s Day because it begged for a game in the state of Florida. The Bowden motivation will only take the Seminoles so far. West Virginia rolls, 34-20.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
W VIRGINIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992. The average score was W VIRGINIA 23.2, OPPONENT 27.5 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
W VIRGINIA is 20-6 OVER (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The average score was W VIRGINIA 32.8, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*)

GATOR BOWL Series Trend: Nebraska’s 26-21 win over Clemson in the ’09 Gator Bowl snapped a string of seven straight ATS wins by the ACC representative in the series. It also marked the first Gator Bowl game to go UNDER the total since ’04. The Big East Conference has not appeared in this game since ’07 and has lost five straight ATS. Florida State, in Bobby Bowden’s last game, will look to extend that streak by repeating their ’05 win over the Mountaineers.

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