CFB: Nebraska vs. Texas (8:00 PM ET, ABC)

The Big 12 Championship game has a recent history of blowout wins by the heavay favorite. Will the 2009 game be any different? Texas is again laying big points, 14.5 to be exact, so oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have weighed in with their opinion. Bettors

2009-12-04

The Big 12 Championship game has a recent history of blowout wins by the heavay favorite. Will the 2009 game be any different? Texas is again laying big points, 14.5 to be exact, so oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have weighed in with their opinion. Bettors seem to be following the bait…errr, lead, as over 60% are siding with the Longhorns according to the Betting Trends page.

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of its goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on the BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Texas by 15, but, in “Lee Corso Fashion”, StatFox Steve says not so fast: We’ve seen it before, the Big 12 championship game becomes a big joke, as the favorite rolls. Most experts and bettors are expecting similar circumstances this year, since Nebraska is just another in the line of weaker North Division foes and Texas has already been inserted into the national title game vs. the SEC winner. I don’t see it that way though. This year’s game seems different, and it could all be about one player, DT Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska, who has the ability to control the Longhorns offense on his own. The Cornhuskers are giving up just 11 PPG, including 13.1 PPG only in league play. There is a reason the StatFox Game Estimators only project Texas to score in the mid-20’s. If so, it will be tough to cover this 2-TD spread. Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by a field goal or less. I like the matchup. Texas may win, but beating the number is a different story.

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