CFB: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (8:00 PM ET, ABC)

ABC has a dandy of a game on tap for Saturday night, but what’s strange about it is that Notre Dame is the so-called feature attraction against a Pittsburgh team that has its eye on the Big East title. Apparently there are still non-believers in the Panth

2009-11-13

ABC has a dandy of a game on tap for Saturday night, but what’s strange about it is that Notre Dame is the so-called feature attraction against a Pittsburgh team that has its eye on the Big East title. Apparently there are still non-believers in the Panthers, and we will find out for sure how good they really are in the next few weeks. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite for players at Sportsbook.com. Early returns see 65% of betting action headed in that direction.

Notre Dame saw its BCS bowl aspirations drown in an upset loss to Navy, 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having an All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been in awhile. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.

Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.

The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.

StatFox Steve has an opinion on this game in the Platinum Sheet: This is one of the first times this season where I believe Notre Dame is being undersold. Granted, Pittsburgh is playing very well, but I believe that this line is more reflective on what happened last week than anything. Had this game been played prior to Pitt’s rout of Syracuse and Notre Dame’s loss to Navy, I think we’d be looking at a line of about 3-1/2 points. This system reflects more on what could be a one-week overreaction: Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. (35-12 since 1992.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*). The Irish still can score points behind one of the nation’s best QB’s, and they have shown a gritty ability to come back regardless of the score or circumstances. I don’t think Pitt has enough punch to put this team away fully. Play: Notre Dame +6.5

Get more on this contest on the GAME MATCHUPS page at Sportsbook.com.

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