CFB: Ohio State at Michigan (12:00 PM ET, ABC)

The third Saturday in November is always special on the college gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. For the ’09 “Big Game in the Big House”, the Big Ten Champion Buckeyes are a 12-point fav

2009-11-20

The third Saturday in November is always special on the college gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. For the ’09 “Big Game in the Big House”, the Big Ten Champion Buckeyes are a 12-point favorite at Sportsbook.com. Surprisingly, bettors aren’t backing them “big”, with only about 60% of the action going that way.

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in their first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle, and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after that quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coach Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after the recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on a 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

The StatFox Power Line Ohio State by 16, and it remains to be seen whether or not Michigan can make this game competitive, at least to the point of covering the 12-point line at Sportsbook.

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