CFB: Outback Bowl NORTHWESTERN vs. AUBURN (11:00 AM ET, ESPN)

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948. And in order to break that trend, it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the high-profile New Year’s Day games, the Outback Bowl. The Wildcats are an 8-point dog, and nearly 2/3 of bettors at Sportsbook.

2010-01-04

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948. And in order to break that trend, it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the high-profile New Year’s Day games, the Outback Bowl. The Wildcats are an 8-point dog, and nearly 2/3 of bettors at Sportsbook.com don’t even give them a chance to stay that close, instead backing Auburn as the chalk.

The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997. They are a 8-point underdog to an Auburn team, which won just two of its L7 games in 2009. That could prove to be an important line position, as the underdog has covered the number each of the L5 times the pointspread exceeded four points in this bowl series. Auburn was a low-scoring bowl team under former coach Tommy Tuberville, going under in its L7, with the games producing just 32.4 points per game. The Tigers were 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in that span. Northwestern won its L3 games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.

When Auburn faced defensive teams that ranked 30th or higher at the end of the regular season, it averaged 34.5 points per game. Northwestern finished 43rd in total defense this year. The Tigers’ scoring was held down by fast SEC defenses, something the Wildcat defenders will not be accused of. Northwestern averaged 25.2 points per game and it should have no problem surpassing that figure since Auburn surrendered almost 27 points per contest (26.9). The cast of players change, however, it is not an accident the average score of Northwestern’s last six bowl games is over 70 points, with the Wildcats conceding 43.8 points per game against unfamiliar opponents in which they have been an underdog, just like this New Year’s Day opener. Play the Over!

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
NORTHWESTERN is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. The average score was NORTHWESTERN 23.4, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (AUBURN) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, off a loss against a conference rival. (42-16 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*)

OUTBACK BOWL Series Trend: The Big Ten-SEC Outback Bowl series has been a competitive one with the last eight games being split 4/4. The Big Ten leads the recent ATS ledger 5-2 however, including Iowa’s easy 31-10 win over South Carolina this past New Year’s Day. That game resulted in the third straight UNDER the total. The last time this game featured a team not Iowa, Wisconsin, or Tennessee was in ’03, and the last five times the line was set at 4-points or more, the underdog covered.

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