CFB: Rose Bowl Game - OHIO STATE vs. OREGON (5:00 PM ET, ABC)

With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Still, this makes for one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire bowl season

2010-01-04

With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Still, this makes for one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire bowl season. The Ducks are the favorites, laying 4-points, but the Buckeyes have been red hot and typically do their best work against good running teams like Oregon. On paper it seems like it should be a competitive contest. According to Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends page, ¾ of bettors like Oregon to win by at least the 4-point margin.

The Big Ten has lost the L3 games in this series to the Pac 10, part of an overall run of dominance by the latter in head-to-head bowl play. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. Ohio State is looking to snap a three-game bowl losing streak, while the Ducks have won their last two. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s team is a 3.5-point favorite, but underdogs have covered eight of these teams’ L10 bowl games.

The Big Ten’s struggles in the Rose Bowl are well documented, no wins in Pasadena since Wisconsin’s 2000 triumph. However, it’s also true that the only Pac-10 team to win the Rose Bowl since 2001 was USC and Ohio State actually won its last Rose Bowl bid (20-17 over Arizona State in 1997). Oregon features a dynamic spread offense led by quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (15 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns) and running back LeMichael James (1,476 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns). Oregon’s offense topped 40 points in seven of its last nine games. However, Ohio State is capable of neutralizing this attack with its staunch run defense, which allowed 83.0 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. More impressively, Ohio State’s defense shut out three opponents and surrendered 14 points or fewer in eight of its last 12 games. Look for head coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes to slow down the Duck attack and possibly reverse history here.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
OHIO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 31.3, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OHIO ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (54-18 since 1992.) (75%, +34.2 units. Rating = 4*)

ROSE BOWL Series Trend: It seems hard to believe, but Ohio State is making its first Rose Bowl appearance since ’97, a 20-17 win over Arizona State. The Buckeyes will be looking to snap a 3-game SU & ATS losing streak by the Big Ten in the “Grandaddy of them all”. Five straight Rose Bowl games have gone OVER the total. Be it coincidental or not, the designated home team is on a 9-1 ATS run, and this year that team is…Oregon.

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