CFB: Sugar Bowl -CINCINNATI vs. FLORIDA (8:30 PM ET, FOX)

Yes, Urban Meyer will be coaching the Florida Gators when they finally meet up with Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl on Friday night. It’s been a crazy few weeks lead-up regarding the coaches for both teams, and while Meyer will be on the sideline for the Gat

2010-01-04

Yes, Urban Meyer will be coaching the Florida Gators when they finally meet up with Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl on Friday night. It’s been a crazy few weeks lead-up regarding the coaches for both teams, and while Meyer will be on the sideline for the Gators, counterpart Brian Kelly will not, as he has left the Cincy program for Notre Dame. In some part due to that, Florida is a heavy 13-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and even that number hasn’t stopped 80% of bettors from backing them to get it done.

Florida had bigger plans, but had to “settle” for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati. With two national titles in three years, anything but is a disappointment and one of the primary storylines will be Florida’s motivation after the SEC title game loss. Of course, it is the last game in one of the great college careers in history, that of Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under head coach Urban Meyer, plus a 15-4 ATS record in non-conference play. Cincinnati is 12-0 despite allowing 36.5 points per game in its L4 contests. The Bearcats hope to pull off the second straight mammoth Sugar Bowl upset, but will do so without coach Brian Kelly, who left for Notre Dame.

Tebow is a winner, not much more needs to be said. Don’t let the anti-Tebow sentiment that flows throughout the country blind you. There is no denying he will go down as one of the most complete all-around leaders ever to play the college game. And Meyer, he’s no slouch, either, with a 16-3 ATS record (+12.7 Units) versus good teams, outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game on the season as the head coach of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 30.2, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 4*) – FoxSheet trend. Without Kelly, out went any chance of a bowl victory for the Bearcats. Tebow will dominate one final time. Florida 45, Cincinnati 28.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
CINCINNATI is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average score was CINCINNATI 23.3, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=440 YPG). (48-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +26 units. Rating = 2*)

SUGAR BOWL Series Trend: The SEC has been represented in the Sugar Bowl every year since ’01. They are 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS in that span. Typically this bowl series has not offered one of the more competitive matchups each season, as only one of the last 12 installments has had a line smaller than 5.5-points. Florida is a double-digit favorite this time around. Overall, favored teams are 7-5 ATS in that span. As far as totals are concerned, the UNDER has been the winning wager in five of the L7 games.

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