International Bowl - NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

The first three editions of the International Bowl in Toronto weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida hopes to extend that streak when it t

2010-01-04

The first three editions of the International Bowl in Toronto weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois. The Bulls are a 6.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and 87% of bettors are anticipating another rout.

South Florida is not bringing positive momentum into the contest, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their L7 games. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns an 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois. All three prior International Bowl games went OVER the total but South Florida is on a 3-1 UNDER run in bowl games and Northern Illinois has gone UNDER in its L2.

South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels has had a great year, not only throwing for 1,766 yards, but rushing for 798 yards and 21 total touchdowns. Not bad considering he wasn’t even expected to be on the field with Matt Grothe (torn ACL) entering his senior season. Northern Illinois will have its hands full with Daniels’ versatility, as there are few athletes in the Mid-American Conference that are comparable. On the other side of the ball, Northern Illinois will be unfamiliar with players of defensive end George Selvie’s skill set. Look for the Huskies’ offense to have trouble with the aggressive South Florida defense. The StatFox Game Estimator shows a huge edge on South Florida predicting a 34-19 win, and I look for the same.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Super Situation
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (40-14 since 1992.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
N ILLINOIS is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games non-conference games since 1992. The average score was N ILLINOIS 16.0, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 0*)

INTERNATIONAL BOWL Series Trend: There have been three previous International Bowl games in Toronto, matching the Big East and MAC conferences. The BCS conference has won all three games outright and leads the ATS ledger 2/1, all as a favorite of a TD or more. This year’s edition finds South Florida as the Big East rep but laying just 6.5 points. The OVER is also 3-0.

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