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February 2012 College Football Events

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Undefeated Big 12 Showdown
2010-10-07

The 4-0 and seventh ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers visit the 4-0 Kansas State Wildcats tonight. Sportsbook.com currently has Nebraska as 11 point favorites, while the ‘total’ is 48 points.

After averaging 47.7 PPG in its first three wins (including 56 at Washington), Nebraska only scored 17 against South Dakota State in its last game. Kansas State has only one double-digit win in its first four games, all which have been played at home. KSU’s Daniel Thomas has 157 rushing YPG this year, ranking fifth in the nation.

Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez is 2nd in the nation in rushing yards for a QB (124 rush YPG), trailing only Denard Robinson. RBs Roy Helu Jr. (43 rush, 305 yds, 4 TD) and Rex Burkhead (41 rush, 304 yds, 3 TD) have nearly identical numbers so it makes sense to have them continue to split carries. Helu has 167 rushing yards and three scores in the past two games against KSU. The Blackshirts are 3rd in the nation in pass defense (126 YPG) and 11th in total defense (265 YPG).

Daniel Thomas was the lone bright spot for KSU’s offense against Nebraska last year, racking up 150 total yards. Kansas State also has a strong pass defense, allowing just 154 passing YPG this year (13th in nation).

Nebraska won the last five games against KSU including the prior meeting in Manhattan 56-28. In this contest, the Huskers outgained KSU 610-247, including a 340-59 rushing yardage advantage. Nebraska also won 17-3 last year as the Wildcats converted just 3-of-14 third downs.

The following betting trend found at Sportsbook.com indicates that Kansas State should be able to hang tough as a home dog.

Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS ST) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, after the first month of the season. (30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*).

These teams covered the ‘over’ in nine of the past 11 meetings, but this strong trend supports bettors that back the ‘under’ tonight:

Play Under - All teams where the ‘total’ is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 5 offensive starters returning. (69-31 over the last 10 seasons.) (69%, +34.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Now that you’ve got the key numbers on tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com for all of the latest football betting odds. And don’t forget to place your weekend football bets tomorrow to take advantage of Reduced Juice (-105) Fridays.

CFL: Defending champs finally open home slate
2010-07-22

The Montreal Alouettes have spent the first three weeks of the 2010 CFL season on the road, winning twice. Thursday night will be their first chance to commemorate their Grey Cup title of last November with their fans. Strangely, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to be treating that motivation as an important factor, as Montreal is only a 7-point favorite over a 1-2 Hamilton team that it has beaten in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.

It truly is an unusual line considering how well the Alouettes play at Percival Molson Stadium, where they were undefeated last season before going on to win the Grey Cup with a nailbiter victory over the Roughriders. The Alouettes wanted their first three games to be on the road to allow time to finish their stadium's expansion from 20,000 to 25,000 seats, with a new deck on the south side and permanent bleachers in the east end zone. They delay was precautionary, as nearly all the work has been done for a month and they were able to play a pre-season game in the refurbished venue.

Perhaps the factor that is keeping Thursday night’s line down is how badly Montreal is being gashed defensively in the early season. Through three games, the Alouettes have allowed 29.7 points per game, second most in the CFL, and 453.3 yards per game, worst in the league. They also are just 1-2 against the spread, with the only cover coming against winless Edmonton. Last week’s defensive effort in the 16-12 win at British Columbia was encouraging though, as the Montreal defense yielded just seven yards rushing and 260 overall.

Hamilton has squared off twice with Winnipeg in the early going, splitting two 20-point plus decisions. Last week at home, the Ti-Cats broke out with a season high 435 yards of offense en route to a 28-7 decision. Hamilton is currently ranked 3rd defensively in both points and yards allowed.

Montreal has had little trouble scoring points on Hamilton in recent head-to-head play. In fact, you have to go back to November ’05 for the last matchup in which the Alouettes failed to reach the 20-point mark. In that 13-game span, they have averaged 33.8 PPG while going 12-1 SU & 6-7 ATS. Ironically, eight of the 13 games have gone under the total despite Montreal’s offensive prowess. That would seem to coincide with this significant StatFox Trend in play for the contest:

• HAMILTON is 21-6 UNDER (+14.4 Units) versus very good offensive teams - scoring 32 or more points/game since 1996. The average score was HAMILTON 19.8, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Kickoff for the Thursday contest is set for 7:30 PM ET. The StatFox Power Line estimates that the pointspread should be Montreal by 11.

Maybe the most puzzling thought when you consider Montreal’s success against Hamilton, its dominance at home, and its improving defense is that the line for this game opened at Montreal -8.5, and has since been bet down to the 7-point mark. We’ll see if bettors are on to something or if the Alouettes were just waiting to get back home.

CFB: Cotton Bowl - OLE MISS vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (2:00 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-04

The Cotton Bowl Classic has a long and storied tradition, and for 2010, Ole Miss & Oklahoma State will try to add to it. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have made the Rebels the favorite, despite being one-game worse in won-lost mark. Bettors seemingly agree, backing Ole Miss at a 78% rate at last check.

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. Another senior quarterback plays his last game for Ole Miss in the 2010 Classic in Jevan Snead. While his career hasn’t been as illustrious as Manning’s, the program has reached new heights in the national polls with him under center. The Rebels are 8-4 in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games, 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their L8. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the three-point underdog. It is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS as bowl game underdog.

If you were to tell me that you planned on taking every SEC team in their bowl games, I couldn’t possibly argue with the logic. After all, they are 19-7 SU and 18-7-1 ATS in the last four years. Now, I might point you specifically to this Cotton Bowl game, where Ole Miss is playing as a three-point favorite to Oklahoma State. I really don’t like what I saw from the Cowboys offensively down the stretch, as they really seemed affected by the loss of wide receiver Dez Bryant. After his suspension in early October, Oklahoma State averaged a pedestrian 25.8 points per game (39.0 prior). It was shut out in the season finale by Oklahoma. The Rebels have a history of playing well in bowl games and have covered seven straight non-conference tilts. They get it done, 27-20.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Mike Gundy is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as an underdog as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 24.9, OPPONENT 37.0 - (Rating = 2*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
OLE MISS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OLE MISS 43.6, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 1*)

COTTON BOWL - (255) OLE MISS [-3, 50.5] vs. (256) OKLAHOMA ST: For the second straight year, the Cotton Bowl is moved back to January 2nd. The SEC is on a decent run in the series, having gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six years. UNDER the total is also 5-1 in that span, and going back even further, 11-3 since ’95. This year’s contest is a rematch of the ’04 game, won by Eli Manning & Ole Miss, 31-28.

CFB: EagleBank Bowl - UCLA vs. Temple (4:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-29

The bowl season marches on with a pair of games on Tuesday. The first one kicks off in mid-afternoon so be sure to not wait until the evening to get your wagers in, as UCLA and Temple will go at it from RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C. starting at 4:30 PM ET on ESPN. UCLA is a 4.5-point favorite and backed by nearly 2/3 of bettors according to Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends page. To date, bettors have been a bit more sharp regarding the totals in the bowl games. For today, they are favoring the UNDER 45.5, but only by a slight margin.

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Sportsbook.com has them as four-point favorites with total drifting downward to 45.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

The StatFox Power Line shows UCLA by 6, a slight edge on the actual line at Sportsbook for the Bruins.

CFB: Army vs. Navy (2:30 PM ET, CBS)
2009-12-11

Saturday will be the 110th renewal of the historic football rivalry between Army and Navy. Played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the game is neutral in the truest sense, being roughly equidistant from the two academies. Navy is currently working on a seven-game winning streak in the series, the longest ever in the rich history. Overall, the Midshipmen own a 53-49-7 edge all time. They are a 14-point favorite at Sportsbook.com.

This battle takes on greater emotional significance with country’s involvement in the world and when the two schools march in to take their place in the stadium, it is one of the coolest moments you will ever see before a game starts.

This contest has more than usual riding on it, especially for Army (5-6, 3-7 ATS). First year coach Rick Ellerson was brought in to change the football aspect of the Black Knights, who had won as many as four games once in the last dozen seasons before this year. With an upset win over Navy, Army would secure first bowl bid since 1996 and take on Temple in the EagleBank Bowl.

Besides attempting to end that drought, the pain of not defeating the Midshipmen since 2001 (1-6 ATS) hangs over West Point like an omnipresent cloud. The biggest problem for Army of late has been scoring points, as they’ve produced just 10.1 points per game during the losing skid. Ordinarily, you would think rest and preparation would benefit any football squad, however if you are outmanned, it doesn’t matter. The Black Knights of the Hudson are unthinkable 3-24 ATS with rest.

For Navy (8-4, 5-5-1 ATS), it is business as usual. They have already locked up Texas Bowl bid against Missouri and for the third consecutive year and fifth in the last six, are double digit favorites vs. their biggest rival. (Sportsbook.com has the Middies at -14, with total of 40.5).

The Midshipmen have one very distinct advantage in this matchup, they can score. Navy averages 28.3 points per game, behind the nation’s third best rushing attack, averaging 279.6 yards per game. Navy is off a 24-17 upset loss at Hawaii as nine-point favorites and is 35-13 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Army on the other hand struggles to score points, totaling just 16.5 per game, ranking 116th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game against opponents that allowed 91 more yards a contest. This means Army will need to force turnovers and win the special teams battle to setup better field position, since they are unlikely to put together many long drives, no matter how fired up they are. They are just 4-13 ATS when the total is 42 or less.

Over the years, this contest has lost significance in the public eye for a variety of reasons and the two institutions worked out a deal with CBS to rekindle the spirit and give it its own special date, the second Saturday in December, away from conference championships and BCS chatter.

No matter the outcome, the effort will not be question. If anyone saw the Navy beat Notre Dame or the Army knock off Vanderbilt from the SEC this season, these players go hard for all 60 minutes. To the winners go the spoils and bragging rights that last an entire year. Should Navy win, the Commander in Chief Trophy stays with them yet again.

The StatFox Power Line shows Navy by 16, slightly higher than the price at Sportsbook.

CFB: Kansas State at Nebraska (7:45 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-11-20

One of the more under-hyped games of the weekend pits Kansas State & Nebraska from Lincoln. The winner will earn the Big 12 North spot in the conference championship game, most likely vs. Texas. The game has not received much attention because Kansas State has very quietly stayed in the hunt, and the pointspread indicates that the game should be a rout. The Cornhuskers have moved from an opening line favorite of -14.5 to -16.5 at Sportsbook.com, despite more wagering action (61%) coming in on the Wildcats.

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

The StatFox Power Line shows Nebraska by 20. Sportsbook only has the game at -16.5. You decide.

CFB: West Virginia at Cincinnati (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-11-13

West Virginia (7-2, 2-6 ATS) is in a unique situation in the Big East. They can make themselves conference champions by knocking off Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers in their remaining games. So far the Mountaineers have flown under the radar. That will no longer be the case if the upset the Bearcats as 9-1/2 point dogs on Friday night. Sportsbook.com bettors are backing the favorites at a 75% rate however, believing an upset isn’t going to happen.

A WVU loss to either the Bearcats or Panthers would help determine who eventually is named champion or beating those two schools, but losing at Rutgers would be the cruelest fate of all. West Virginia’s offense has slowed, after scoring 30 or more points in their first five games; as they have not managed to climb to that barrier since.

The Mountaineers defense, once a fixture in the Top 30, now allows far too many big plays of 20 or more yards, which is a real issue having to deal with Cincinnati offense. West Virginia will need A-game and is 11-4 ATS in road encounters in Nov/Dec. regular season contests.

The Bearcats are 9-0 for the first time in 58 years and brimming with confidence. Coach Brian Kelly is a noted taskmaster, yet his in-game demeanor has been much calmer this season. Cincinnati (6-3 ATS) players always look to be prepared and seem to enjoy playing, something not always seen from others on a week to week basis. A win here and just two games remain, a final home contest in non-conference action against Illinois and a likely huge showdown at Pittsburgh.

Cincy can’t ignore a mildly underachieving West Virginia squad who is capable of big upset. That’s where the defense had to play smart and whoever is the quarterback has to remain composed. The latest information has sophomore Zach Collaros making his fourth straight start as the Bearcats chase the first 10-0 start in school history. Coach Kelly has still waffled a little this week about who his starter will be once Tony Pike is healthy. Pike is expected to see playing time in this Big East battle. The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

Sportsbook.com has West Virginia as 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 55. The Mountaineers are 14-2-1 SU against Cincy and will be an underdog for the first time since the ‘Cats joined the Big East.

West Virginia’s offense has taken notice that the two best rushing attacks Cincinnati has faced, Fresno State and UConn, both went over 200 yards on the ground. Can the ‘Teers take advantage on a short week, since they are 1-5 ATS on Friday nights? The Bearcats have shown ability to rebound off a weak defensive effort and are 8-1-1 ATS after conceding 200 or more yards on the ground. Coach Kelly teams are 7-0 ATS at home after ringing up 37 or more points.

ESPN2 will bring this Big East confrontation into viewers living rooms, with the visitor is 5-1-1 ATS and the Under is on 4-1 run.

The StatFox Power Line shows Cincinnati by 12. If you agree, hit the confirm button for that side of the wager at Sportsbook.com.

Tennessee (+15, 41.5) at Alabama 3:30E CBS
2009-10-23

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

The lines at Sportsbook.com suggest Alabama to win 28-13, are you in agreement?